Market Cycles & History

Putting today’s market in historical context

I study market cycles and history to put current conditions into perspective—not to pinpoint tops or bottoms. Markets move through periods of expansion, contraction, changing leadership, speculation and risk aversion, but the circumstances behind each period are different. Looking at earlier cycles helps me compare what’s happening now with what has happened before, while being careful not to assume that history will repeat in the same way.

These are the historical patterns and market cycles I pay attention to when I’m trying to understand today’s market in a broader context.

Market Cycles & Drawdowns →
How I look at bull and bear markets, corrections and crashes—and the differences between an ordinary market decline and a more significant change in the market environment.

Markets & the Economic Cycle →
How market cycles interact with expansions and recessions, including why financial markets and economic data don’t always move at the same time.

Bubbles, Leadership & Market Transitions →
How speculation, valuation, changing expectations and shifts in market leadership have appeared during major transitions in past market cycles.

Historical Patterns & Seasonality →
How I look at recurring market patterns, secular cycles and calendar tendencies—and how much weight I give them when comparing today’s market with the past.